One match, two places swapped. The world order flipped on Saturday night in Johannesburg, and it could flip back in six days.

One match, two places swapped. The world order flipped on Saturday night in Johannesburg, and it could flip back in six days.

The maximum points available

When the world’s top two nations meet, the winner inevitably finishes on top. The only question was by how much. By winning by 17 points, New Zealand crossed the threshold for the maximum transfer: 1.75 points taken from South Africa, 1.75 added to the All Blacks.

New Zealand now have 94.03 points, South Africa 92.21. The gap is 1.82 points.

Four Tests, four wins

Dave Rennie has yet to lose a Test in charge of the All Blacks. On 4 July, New Zealand beat France 34-32. On the 11th, Italy 47-17. On the 18th, Ireland 40-21. On Saturday, South Africa 33-16. Four out of four.

New Zealand’s run is actually longer than his tenure: the All Blacks’ last Test defeat dates back to 15 November 2025 and a 33-19 loss to England. Five wins in a row since.

Over the longer run, South Africa still hold the edge

The bigger picture tempers the euphoria. Of the last five meetings between the two nations, South Africa have won three: 31-27 and 18-12 in 2024, then an emphatic 43-10 in Wellington on 13 September 2025. New Zealand won at home on 6 September 2025, 24-17, and then on Saturday at Ellis Park.

Saturday’s result is also South Africa’s first home defeat to the All Blacks since 13 August 2022 and a 23-35 loss, also in Johannesburg.

What the match itself says

Rennie refused to take the score at face value. “There was nothing in that game. I know the score might look convincing, but it was a real arm wrestle. At 19-16 we were under pressure and the boys held on,” he said.

The numbers back him on the nature of the match but not on how one-sided it was: New Zealand scored an average of 3.67 points per entry into the opposition 22, against 0.91 for South Africa. The Springboks finished with 51% of possession, 61% of territory, and just one try.

Rassie Erasmus took it in his stride. “We’re now in a position where, if we want to win the series, we have to win three games in a row,” he acknowledged, before adding that it was “nice to go into the next game as underdogs”.

Next stop, Cape Town

The second of the four Tests is played on Saturday at the DHL Stadium. A South African win, whatever the margin, would be enough to put the Springboks back on top of the rankings.