Three missed conversions by the most consistent goal-kicker in the league make for a powerful image. They do not prove anything, and that is what we wanted to check before writing that the rule had changed something.

Fifteen seconds less

As part of a trial approved by World Rugby, the LNR has cut the time a goal-kicker has to take his kick from sixty to forty-five seconds. The routine every kicker has built for himself, marks on the ground, breathing, run-up, has just lost a quarter of its time.

Thomas Ramos was the first to pay the price. One of the most consistent kickers in the league missed his first three conversions against Union Bordeaux-Bègles before handing the tee to Romain Ntamack, who landed the next three. The Toulouse player hit out at the rule, and above all at the process: “We’re not consulted, it’s a shame.” The image went round, and with it the idea that the change is hurting goal-kickers.

A two-point gap, and nothing behind it

Over the first two rounds, Top 14 sides converted 84 of 109 tries, or 77.1%. Over the same two rounds last season, 84 of 106, or 79.2%. Over the following twenty-four rounds of 2025-26, 1,046 of 1,297, or 80.6%.

A two-point gap amounts to two or three kicks out of a hundred and nine tries. At that volume, a gap like this happens all the time without any cause being needed. In other words, the league is kicking today just as it was last year.

The bad nights do not stand out either

One might have expected more from the bad nights, on the basis that the average might be hiding individual collapses. Two teams have indeed missed four conversions in a single match since the start of the season, LOU away to Racing 92 and Stade Toulousain against UBB, whereas it happened only three times over the twenty-six rounds of the previous campaign.

But applying last season’s success rate to every team sheet already gives 0.6 expected cases over these two rounds, and 3.6 over the whole 2025-26 season, when three were actually recorded. In other words, last season was perfectly in line with chance, and this season’s two cases are above what was expected without being out of the ordinary: a run like this happens roughly one time in ten without any rule changing.

The count for three or more missed conversions tells the same story, three cases recorded against 1.6 expected.

The explanation lies elsewhere: more tries are being scored

What has really changed is the number of tries per team per match. Over these two rounds, 14.3% of team sheets show seven tries or more, against 8.6% over the same two rounds last season. UBB’s 64-5 against Racing, Pau’s 70-28 against Bayonne, Toulouse’s 48-12: big scores have multiplied.

And you cannot miss four conversions when you score only three tries. The more matches there are with eight or ten tries, the more big runs of misses become mechanically possible, without anyone kicking any worse.

What to watch for

None of this invalidates what goal-kickers are saying. Fifteen seconds less on a precision skill is something you feel, and the lack of consultation is an issue in itself. But after fourteen matches, the change has left no trace in the results.

If there is an effect, it will show over time, and above all with a comparable number of tries. That is the check to run again in two months: with the same number of attempts, are Top 14 goal-kickers less successful than before? For now, the answer is no.

Finally, a note on method: the rates quoted compare successful conversions with the number of tries, since a match sheet does not record missed attempts. A penalty try, awarded with its seven points without any kick being taken, therefore counts as a success, which slightly raises both seasons in the same way.