In rugby, probably even more than elsewhere, it is never wise to rest on favourite’s status. All the same, England’s for this 2025 World Cup is undeniable in everyone’s eyes. You only have to look at their odds with the bookmakers for lifting the trophy to see it. The most generous of them will give you barely more than 3.50 euros for a 10-euro stake (odds of 1.35), while offering 30 euros (odds of 4) if New Zealand, second in the hierarchy of potential winners, come through, 70 for Canada just behind (odds of 8) and… 140 for France (odds of 15)!

By way of comparison, Stade Toulousain, who have won the last two editions of the Top 14 and still look like an ogre for the coming season, are priced at roughly 2 on average (10 euros won for a 10-euro stake) to hold on to their prize in 10 months’ time.

So how do you explain such confidence in a nation that is not even reigning world champion and that has lifted only one World Cup in the 21st century, eleven years ago now (2014), while New Zealand have won every other edition since 1998?

Unbeaten since November 2022

Of course, the host nation factor counts for part of it. At the previous edition, in 2022, the Black Ferns were able to count on the support of the Eden Park crowd in Auckland to see off England at the end of an epic and desperately tight final (34-31).

Above all, because that defeat, which itself ended an incredible run of 30 matches without losing, is the last one the Red Roses have suffered. It is now more than 1,000 days since they started relentlessly beating anyone put in front of them, a barely believable ongoing run of 24 straight wins. So it is entirely logical that they should be sitting way out in front of the World Rugby rankings with 97.76 points, 7.63 more than Canada, the second-best nation in the world.

In preparation for this 2025 World Cup, England were able to sharpen up in two tests that rang out like two strong messages to their rivals. In the first, they put close to 100 points on Spain, a nation qualified for the tournament (97-7). In the second, John Mitchell’s side made short work of France on 9 August at Mont-de-Marsan, inflicting on them their heaviest defeat against England in 30 meetings (6-40). That night, beyond the score, Manae Feleu and her team-mates had just lost for the sixteenth time in a row to their neighbours across the Channel.

A status to live up to, a pressure to handle

It is a number that shows the scale of the gap between the first and fourth nations in the world. And one that allows England to approach this World Cup with a little more confidence still. “We have been preparing for this moment for three years and we are more than ready”, England full-back Ellie Kildunne, named world player of the year in 2024, said in an interview with AFP.

With the failure of 2022 always in mind, and the need to know how to wear the ultra-favourites’ suit: “I can’t remember a time when the Red Roses weren’t under pressure,” experienced forward Abbie Ward said last week, putting things in perspective. “I’ve been to two World Cups where we arrived as favourites and we didn’t win. The day England no longer have that pressure, it will feel strange. But I think we like it, that we live off it. It’s something we can turn to our advantage. And because it’s a home World Cup, that’s a bonus: that extra noise, our families in the stands. The girls will feed off it and I hope we’ll see it in our performances.“

The first of those performances, on Friday in Sunderland against the United States in the World Cup opener (8.30pm), will surely set the tone for the mental strength of a team expected to shine on home soil.