This is an institutional crisis of a kind world rugby has rarely seen. On Wednesday the Samoan government formally withdrew its recognition of and support for Lakapi Samoa, the national rugby union. World Rugby’s answer was immediate: unless the measure is cancelled within 24 hours, Samoa’s national teams will be suspended from all international competition for four years. With the 2027 World Cup in Australia squarely in view.

Why Samoa face a four-year suspension

The standoff had been building for months. After lengthy consultations, prime minister La’aulialemalietoa Leuatea Schmidt confirmed the complete withdrawal of government support for Lakapi Samoa, judging that the union had had “enough time” to sort out its internal problems. The reasons: persistent divisions within the leadership, concerns over financial management and grievances raised by former players and coaches.

The Samoan executive had gone further still in recent months, raising the threat of creating a rival union to run the local game if the board did not resign. That amounts to direct government interference in the affairs of a member union, precisely what World Rugby’s regulations forbid.

This governance crisis comes against an already bleak sporting backdrop: the men’s side, long the team every Pacific nation feared, now sit only 20th in the World Rugby rankings.

World Rugby’s ultimatum: 24 hours to save the 2027 World Cup

Faced with that decision, the international body reached for the heaviest weapon it has. World Rugby gave the Samoan government 24 hours to cancel the withdrawal of recognition and accept an independent audit of Lakapi Samoa. Without agreement, the sanction will be immediate: a four-year suspension from all international competition, for every Samoan national team.

The most striking consequence would concern the 2027 World Cup (1 October to 13 November in Australia), from which Samoa would simply be excluded. In Pool E, France, Japan and the United States would lose an opponent, and France one of the rarest fixtures on the international calendar.

Belgium waiting in the wings for a historic call-up

If the worst-case scenario is confirmed, all eyes would turn to Belgium. Beaten finalists in the final qualification tournament played in Dubai last autumn, the Diables Noirs finished the competition unbeaten, with wins over Namibia and Brazil and then a stunning 13-13 draw with Samoa in the decisive match, before missing out on qualification on try bonus points.

Excluding Samoa would automatically open the door to the Australian World Cup for Belgium, who have never played in a World Cup finals. A word of caution, though: nothing has been made official at this stage, and Belgium’s call-up remains conditional on World Rugby’s final decision, expected in the coming hours. Until then, the international future of Samoan rugby is hanging by a thread.