This is the third and final act of the summer tour. On Saturday 18 July, at the Japan National Stadium in Tokyo, France close their first Nations Championship window against Japan (kick-off at 10.40am French time, on TF1). After a bonus-point defeat in New Zealand and a statement win in Australia, Fabien Galthié’s side have only one objective left: to win, with the attacking bonus point if possible, and go after top spot in the northern hemisphere.

This is the third and final act of the summer tour. On Saturday 18 July, at the Japan National Stadium in Tokyo, France close their first Nations Championship window against Japan (kick-off at 10.40am French time, on TF1). After a bonus-point defeat in New Zealand and a statement win in Australia, Fabien Galthié’s side have only one objective left: to win, with the attacking bonus point if possible, and go after top spot in the northern hemisphere. But between the heat, the humidity and an opponent on the rise, nothing will be handed to them.

A very clear arithmetic

The road map is straightforward. Fourth in the table going into this round, France can move top of the northern pool provided they win in Tokyo. The ideal scenario plays out in two places: a French win on one side, an Irish defeat at Eden Park against New Zealand on the other. Ireland, the leaders, are the All Blacks’ guests at the same time, and New Zealand are on a long home winning run against them. A favourable set of results would put France in an ideal position before the return fixtures in November, played this time in Europe.

Ntamack and Jalibert, the pairing retained

Fabien Galthié has opted for continuity behind. The Romain Ntamack–Matthieu Jalibert duo, fielded against Australia with the Toulouse man at 10 and the Bordeaux man at 15, is retained. A two-pronged pairing that kept the Wallabies defence under constant threat by swapping roles. In the back row, Alexandre Roumat is back in the blue shirt for the first time since the 2025 Six Nations, called up after Joshua Brennan was ruled out with an injury picked up in the Top 14 final. Maxime Lucu keeps the captain’s armband.

The climate trap

This may well be France’s main opponent. Serious heat and, above all, very high humidity are expected in Tokyo. “It really takes it out of you,” Maxime Lucu acknowledged in the press conference, describing training sessions this week marked by plenty of dropped ball. The staff have worked extensively from the Japan v Italy match to prepare for it. The precedent of 2022, a laboured win at the same ground (15-20), is a reminder that local conditions can erase part of any theoretical gap.

A Japan revived under Eddie Jones

Eddie Jones’ Japan are not to be taken lightly. The Brave Blossoms comfortably beat Italy in their first match before losing to Ireland without disgracing themselves. A shrewd observer of French rugby, Jones has a long-standing relationship with Fabien Galthié, whom he says he has been drawing on for more than twenty years. All of which adds a tactical dimension to a duel between two coaches who read each other well.

O’Keeffe, a reunion

The match will be refereed by Ben O’Keeffe. The New Zealander had not taken charge of a France match since the 2023 World Cup quarter-final lost to South Africa, with its contested decisions. Asked about the reunion, Fabien Galthié went for irony: “I had not even thought about it (…) I have no problem with Ben O’Keeffe,” he said in the press conference.

Favourites, but forewarned

On paper, France start as favourites. Momentum argues for them: a statement win in Australia, only a narrow defeat in New Zealand, against a Japan side that did beat Italy but lost to Ireland. The gap in physicality is real. That said, the only recent precedent in Tokyo, that laboured 15-20 in 2022, invites caution: in the Japanese humidity, a poor start can be enough to let doubt take hold. The real question is not whether France can win, but whether they will do it with the attacking bonus point that could change everything in the table.