Vannes v Clermont: bottom of the table, yet bookmakers’ favourites

Vannes are still waiting for a win. Six rounds, six defeats and a single bonus point leave the promoted Breton side bottom of the Top 14 ahead of Clermont’s visit to La Rabine on Saturday 24 October (2:30pm French time, Canal+ Sport). Clermont are only eleventh, two points clear of Castres, and have yet to win on the road.

Vannes lose, but only just

The run is starting to weigh. Vannes have not won a Top 14 game since 26 April 2025, a 29-19 victory over Toulon: ten straight defeats since, six of them this season. Yet four of those six losses were by fewer than ten points, and the average margin is just 9.8. The cruellest was the 40-43 home defeat to Pau on 3 October.

Vannes fade late. They score 4.3 points per game after the 60th minute, against a Top 14 average of 7.4. They defend a lot, with the second-highest tackle count in the league (163.8 per game), but concede four tries per match. Their discipline is an asset: 9.3 penalties conceded per game, the second-lowest figure.

Clermont: three away games, three defeats

Clermont arrive on a three-game losing run in all competitions: 38-13 at La Rochelle, 22-23 at home to Bordeaux-Bègles, then 23-48 against Leinster in the Champions Cup after leading at half-time. Away from the Michelin, they have nothing to show: three trips, three defeats and 124 points conceded at Lyon (40-36), Bayonne (46-24) and La Rochelle.

Their profile contrasts with Vannes’. Clermont have the ball (52.8% possession, second in the Top 14), but they make the fewest tackles in the league (115.8 per game) and concede 11.3 penalties per match, the third-highest figure. “We feel pressure every weekend. But the pressure is very much on them,” Christophe Urios told Rugbyrama.

Even the bookmakers back Vannes

The table points one way, the odds the other. The odds listed on Flashscore point to a tight game, but all eight bookmakers listed on Friday make Vannes favourites: a home win is priced between 1.58 and 1.67, a Clermont win between 1.95 and 2.15. Once the bookmakers’ margin is removed, those prices give Vannes roughly a 53% chance, Clermont 42% and the draw under 5%. There are several reasons. The Top 14 is won at home: host sides have taken 31 of the 42 games played this season, or 74%. Clermont have conceded an average of 41 points in their three away games. Vannes lose, but only just, while Clermont arrive with ten players unavailable and three straight defeats, including a 23-48 loss to Leinster. Vannes remain fragile favourites: at 53% to 42%, the gap is narrow.

Two crowded treatment rooms

Vannes will be without both their fly-halves, Maxime Lafage, their leading Top 14 points scorer (32), and Pierre Popelin, both out with Achilles tendon injuries. Jean Cotarmanac’h is expected to partner Simione Kuruvoli at half-back. This week the club signed Argentine fly-half Nicolas Roger (26, five caps) as an additional player until the end of the season, and tighthead Jeffery Toomaga-Allen as a medical joker. Lock Matias Alemanno, injured against Pau, is back.

Clermont list ten players unavailable in the club’s injury report, including Régis Montagne (calf, several weeks), Etene Nanaï-Seturo and Baptiste Veschambre (shoulder). Marcos Kremer has served his suspension and returns, as do Pita-Gus Sowakula, Giorgi Dzmanashvili and Lucas Zamora. According to La Montagne, the club hopes to register Rob Leota, signed until 31 January 2027, in time.

On Clermont’s last visit to La Rabine, on 5 January 2025, they won by a single point (19-20).